Taiwan's Food Resiliency - or Not - in a Conflict with China

The US military, intelligence, and diplomatic communities have overlooked a key vulnerability in their assessment of a potential military conflict between China and Taiwan- Taiwan's growing reliance on agricultural imports and its food stocks (except for rice) that could endure trade disruptions for only six months. This article assesses Taiwan's agricultural sector and its ability to feed the country's population if food imports and production are disrupted;identifies the food products that should be prioritized in resupply operations, based on Taiwan's nutritional needs and domestic food production;and outlines the required logistical assets. These findings underscore the urgency for US military planners to develop long-term logistical solutions for this complex strategic issue.

The Nutrient Rich Food Price Index: a nutrition-relevant adaptation of the Laspeyres price index to track the cost of affordable nutrient density.

Background: The Laspeyres price index is the ratio of the current cost of a market basket of commodities or food groups relative to base period prices. Objective: To develop a nutrition-relevant version of the Laspeyres price index, using market baskets based on tertiles of the nutrient rich food (NRF9.3) nutrient density metric. Methods: Nutrient composition data for 151 foods from the 2012 Mexico national health and nutrition survey (ENSANUT) were merged with food prices and price indices from the national institute of geography and statistics (INEGI). Nutrient Rich Food Index (NRF9.3) was the measure of nutrient density. May 2012 was the base period. Nutrient rich food price index (NRFPI) values were calculated for each tertile of NRF nutrient density scores for each month between June 2011 and March 2022. Results: The market basket of foods in the top tertile of NRF nutrient density scores cost more per 100 kcal and had higher NRFPI values compared to foods in the bottom tertile. Higher NRF9.3 scores were correlated with greater monthly inflation. The NRFPI for foods in the top tertile of NRF9.3 scores was marked by seasonal price spikes, and greater volatility compared to foods in the bottom tertile. Conclusion: The present adaptation of the Laspeyres Index used market baskets defined by nutrient density tertiles instead of commodity groups. This approach allows for easier tracking of the cost of nutrient dense foods and healthful diets across geographic regions and over time. Applied to Mexico food prices prior to and during the Covid-19 pandemic, the NRFPI was sensitive to time trends, seasonality, and price fluctuations. The new tool may be useful in monitoring the rising cost of healthy foods worldwide.

A call for food system change

[...]the UK meets more of its food needs, the country risks having potentially counterfeit food imports and disrupted supply chains. The book describes relevant aspects of British food history, defines terms, lists foods imported and exported, measures freight shipped through UK airports, defines greenhouse gas emissions from livestock and crop production, documents food price trends, gives feed conversion rates for food animals, lists advertising spending by major food companies, explains water rights, and states how much land is owned by the British aristocracy, corporations, and Crown. Lang was a member of the EAT-Lancet Commission and he calls on the UK Government to adopt the Commission's Great Food Transformation recommendations to improve public health, the environment, food citizenship, wage scales, and democratic accountability, and to redistribute power in the food system.

Impact of Anomalies on Food Prices in T?Rk?Ye

Interest on building an early warning indicator to detect abnormal growth in prices in consumer markets has increased after the global food crisis of 2007/2008 and 2011. The indicator of food price anomalies (IFPA) identifies abnormally high or low prices that occur for a food commodity price series over a given period of time. This paper aims to present IFPA for selected products in Turkiye for the last ten years (2012-2021) in order to detect the anomalies in food prices through the quarterly and annual Compound Growth Rates (CGR), of the monthly price level. CGR is modified in order to account seasonality in this method. According to the results, abnormally high prices were measured in the years of 2013 and 2021 at most in Turkiye. And, no abnormally high prices were measured in the years of 2017 and 2019. Bread, veal, sunflower oil, milk, tea, wheat flour, fresh fish and olive were the food items abnormally high prices were measured more than one. Chicken meat, sunflower oil, milk, yoghurt and fresh fish were the food items abnormally high prices were measured in 2021. And, moderately high prices were measured for veal, egg and wheat flour in 2021. When the last three year situations of food items with abnormally high food prices were examined, it was observed that the abnormally high prices were intensively observed after COVID-19 pandemic started.

COVID-19 impact on the agro-food and marine industries through a Bayesian stochastic volatility Fourier Series model

In this paper, we construct a hybrid model, consisted of a Bayesian Vector Autoregressive structure with Bayesian stochastic volatility (SVAR-SV), as well as, Fourier Series (FS). We test the model's performance in terms of forecasting ability, comparing it with simple Bayesian stochastic volatility (SV), and also with a classical econometric autoregressive model. By estimating the average prices of the major Food futures in the stock market, and the average prices of the biggest Marine companies' stocks, we test the effect of Covid-19 on these stocks, through the proposed hybrid model, and the impulse-response functions between the aforementioned. Through this approach, we test whether the Covid-19 pandemic hindered the performance of marine companies and affected the food prices, with those two affecting one another. Based on the findings, a shock is apparent from the Food futures to the Marine companies' stocks, and the hybrid model proposed is the best, in terms of forecasting ability.

Forecast of beef production for Brazilian market between 2021 and 2022

Cattle is one of the main items in the Brazilian productive guideline and an important export product. During the covid-19 pandemic, the price of beef occupied a prominent position in agricultural sector analyzes due to the prices increases. The objective of this research is to observe the national production behavior, exports, and domestic supply. Therefore, a domestic supply forecast was made for January 2021 to December 2022 (24 months). Based on the results obtained, it was found that the beefs supply available to the Brazilian market will not present an expressive upward behavior that compensates the evolution in beef export to international markets. Thus, a shift in the price of beef in the domestic market to higher levels may be observed.

COVID-19 as a catalyst of food security crisis. whether the existing system of agriculture can remain the same

From 2019 to 2022, since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, the global percentage of hunger rose by 150 million people, which is 10% of the world population. At the same time, one-third of food is thrown away because it cannot reach the final consumer. Climate change, natural catastrophes, wars leading to humanitarian crises are the main and ongoing causes of hunger. COVID- 19 acted as an accelerator of processes that exacerbate the food security crisis, to which import-dependent countries are especially sensitive. Quarantine that was introduced as a tool to combat the spread of the COVID-19 acted as a catalyst of social, economic, political, ecological, and food crisis that is displayed in the global economic system and in agriculture - its subsystem. At first glance, the increase in the percentage of starving populations on the planet is explained by poverty and the inability to purchase basic food products;a rise in prices was caused by breaks in logistics chains, the increase in the price of energy carriers, and economic shifts caused by the lockdown. In practice, despite the constantly growing volumes of global production of agro-industrial products, the balance between demand and supply of products that ensure the world's food security has been disturbed. The research problem lies in the insufficient determination of intangible causes of hunger, other than those caused by poverty and social inequality. The aim of the research is to show the prospects of the aggravation the food security crisis due to excess of food demand over supply, and to propose theoretical ways out of the crisis. The quantitative method of panel data research was used to prepare the article. The visualization method was used to simplify the perception of the proposed array of information. It is possible to overcome such social problems as hunger, poverty, climate and ecology problems caused by the increase in the temperature on the planet's surface, ocean pollution, and soil degradation only through adaptation and achieving synergy between the planet's ecosystems. Agriculture as a main factor of food security should be transformed through implementing principles of climate-optimized agriculture and blue economy (use of ocean resources) as a source of "blue food" to achieve food sustainability.

Food Insecurity During COVID-19: A Neglected Priority?

The COVID-19 pandemic is a public health and global problem threatening the food security and nutrition of millions of people. While considerable public health resources have focused on combating the COVID-19 pandemic, food and nutrition have received less attention. By 2030, Sustainable Development Goal 2 aims to eradicate hunger and ensure that all people, especially the poor and vulnerable, have year-round access to safe, nutritious, and enough food. Regrettably, the world is falling short of its 2030 target of attaining Zero Hunger, mainly due to this pandemic. We reviewed the prevalence of food insecurity during COVID-19 ranging from 23% to 80% and its consequences including the measures presented in the previous studies to address the issue. Food insecurity has many negative consequences during COVID-19, including disruption of food chains, increased food prices, malnutrition and health consequences, growing social inequities, and bad economic outcomes. We highlighted the need for two main strategies: nutritionsensitive social protection, and food system reform and innovation to address this problem further to build a more robust and resilient food system for the sake of future generations. [ FROM AUTHOR] Copyright of IIUM Medical Journal Malaysia is the property of International Islamic University Malaysia, Faculty of Medicine and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full . (Copyright applies to all s.)

Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the World Energy and Food Commodity Prices: Implications for Global Economic Growth

The negative socio-economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic are widely discussed. However, relatively less attention is paid to its impact on the world commodity price formation including energy and food prices. The aim of this paper is to examine the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on world energy commodity prices and their interactions with world food commodity prices. Using the World Bank data on commodity prices we look for evidence of changes in energy and food prices caused by occurrence of the COVID-19 pandemic, which was assumed to be a negative shock to the global economy in terms of both supply and demand. Based on data series analysis of indices of world energy and food commodity prices, it is evident that after the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic the energy prices, especially oil prices, plummeted. Food prices followed the same direction;however, their plunge was much less extreme. In general, it can be concluded that the pandemic caused a severe energy price shock which clearly had a negative impact on global economic growth, but the scale of this impact differs depending on the type of economic sector and countries' net export positions in energy and food trade. © 2023 by the authors.

Pandemic pricing: Evidence from German grocery e-commerce

The sudden demand spike for online grocery purchases during the Covid-19 pandemic and supply bottlenecks caused by disrupted global value chains put immense pressure on prices. We analyze the prices of the largest German online grocers to test how these challenges affected prices during the first wave of the pandemic. Using a large dataset of online price quotes, we shed light on the magnitude of price changes across retailer types, product categories, and stages of the pandemic. We show that online prices went up as the intensity of Covid-19 containment measures increased. The magnitude of price increases was heterogeneous across retailers and product categories: pure online retailers showed a lower price response compared to hybrid stores, while the prices of essential food items such as baby foods and pantry products increased more than those of other product categories or beverages. [EconLit Citations: E31, Q31]. © 2023 The Authors. Agribusiness published by Wiley Periodicals LLC.

Time Series: Predicting Nigerian Food Prices using ARIMA Model and R-Programming

The majority of food commodities in Nigeria have seen persistent price instability. this is brought by elements like insecurity/insurgency, poor storage facilities, seasonal price changes, inconsistent government policies, COVID-19 containment measures, poor access to credit, technical inputs, lack of modern farm tools and implements. This study focused on comparing the prices of four different food items - beans, onion, tomato, and yam using the ARIMA model to forecast future prices. Two out of the six geopolitical zones of Nigeria were used for the study;the North-Central and North-West. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) provided the raw data between 2017 and 2018, and the items were weighed in kilograms (Kg). The data was extrapolated into a time series data by executing in R Studio. The stationarity of the series data was obtained by a Unit root Test using the KPSS test (If p<0.05 means the time series is stationary). Results from the forecasted values indicated that food commodities' prices increase with time, making ARIMA a good model for forecasting prices. It was recommended that necessary measures should be put in place to ameliorate the high cost of food prices being experienced in the country of Nigeria. © 2022 IEEE.

Food riots redux: lessons from the 2007–08 food crisis

The 2007–08 global food crisis led to hunger riots around the world. Food prices have again risen spectacularly since the COVID-19 pandemic but have fortunately not led to major social unrest in the global South. In this research note, we argue that the difference lies, in part, in the nature of the two price shocks and, in part, in the policy response from governments and international organizations. This time round, the stability of rice prices appears to have dampened the impact of food inflation in major rice-importing countries. This pattern of global rice price is in sharp contrast to that seen in 2008 when the price tripled between January and May. The two food crises also differ substantially in the extent and responsiveness of public policy. Right from March 2020, governments began taking fiscal and administrative measures to help the populations suffering from the loss of livelihood. Nonetheless, food inflation remains a concern, and prolonged conflict in Ukraine and the ongoing inflation spiral could put in jeopardy the mitigating effects of anti-inflationary policy measures. © 2023 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.

On the effects of COVID-19 on food prices in India: a time-varying approach

Since the inception of the novel coronavirus, immense research efforts have been made to understand how several economic indicators, including food security, would be affected. With India racing behind the United States in terms of daily infection rate and being a country with challenging food security issues, it is important to investigate how the presence of the pandemic has influenced the dynamics of food prices in the country. This paper considers seven price series from 167 markets across the five regions in India as well as the growth rate of COVID-19 infection. The paper uses a time-varying autoregressive model to investigate the nonlinear dynamics of food prices in relation to the pandemic in India. The resultant models reveal strong asymmetric properties with shock-inflicted persistence, which appear not to converge over the simulation period. Moreover, in terms of the location of the burden of the pandemic impact, we find a food product divide.

Attainment of sustainable food security in Nigeria: the role of libraries

PurposeThe quest for sustainable food security (SFS) is fundamental to United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. In furtherance of their pivotal role in providing the required information resources in support of education and research, libraries are expected to assist the economy in ensuring SFS. The purpose of this study is to investigate how libraries provide information to support research in agriculture towards the attainment of SFS in Nigeria.Design/methodology/approachDescriptive research design was used for the study. Interview and questionnaire were used as the instruments of data collection.FindingsThis study found that the extent of use of library information resources for SFS in Nigeria is high. Libraries, though facing some challenges, contribute significantly to the attainment of food security in Nigeria. It was recommended that libraries should intensify efforts to embark on media literacy programmes and provide information resources for research on agriculture and food production with a view to actualising food security goals specified in Sustainable Development Goals. Libraries should be well-funded to acquire the relevant information resources to aid research into food security and end hunger and poverty across the world.Practical implicationsThis study suggests having better sponsored libraries that can perform as required in advancing agricultural information needs.Originality/valueThis study is a creative attempt to know how libraries can contribute to SFS through the provision of information to farmers and lecturers in agriculture.

Global evidence of the exposure-lag-response associations between temperature anomalies and food markets

Recent years have witnessed a landmark shift in global food prices due to the frequency of extreme weather events caused by temperature anomalies as well as the overlapping risks of COVID-19. Notably, the threat posed by temperature anomalies has spread beyond agricultural production to all aspects across food supply and demand channels, further amplifying volatility in food markets. Exploring trends in global food prices will give nations early warning signs to ensure the stability of food market. Accordingly, we utilize the Distributed Lag Non-Linear Model (DLNM) to simultaneously establish the exposure-lag-response associations between global temperature anomalies and food price returns in two dimensions: "Anomaly Degree" and "Response Time". Meanwhile, we also examine the cumulative lagged effects of temperature anomalies in terms of different quantiles and lag times. Several conclusions have been drawn. First, global food price returns will continue to decrease when the average temperature drops or rises slightly. While it turns up once the average temperature rises more than 1.1 degrees C. Second, major food commodities are more sensitive to temperature changes, and their price returns may also trend in a directional shift at different lags, with the trend in meat price being more particular. Third, food markets are more strongly affected in the case of extreme temperature anomalies. Many uncertainties still exist regarding the impact of climate change on food markets, and our work serves as a valuable reference for international trade regulation as well as the creation of dynamic climate risk hedging strategies.

How to Prepare for the Next Pandemic - Investigation of Correlation Between Food Prices and COVID-19 From Global and Local Perspectives

The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has caused enormous disruptions to not only the United States, but also the global economy. Due to the pandemic, issues in the supply chain and concerns about food shortage drove up the food prices. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the prices for food increased 4.1% and 3.7% over the year ended in August 2020 and August 2021, respectively, while the amount of annual increase in the food prices prior to the COVID-19 pandemic is less than 2.0%. Previous studies show that such kinds of exogenous disasters, including the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake, 9/11 terrorist attacks, and major infectious diseases, and the resulted unusual food prices often led to subsequent changes in people's consumption behaviors. We hypothesize that the COVID-19 pandemic causes food price changes and the price changes alter people's grocery shopping behaviors as well. To thoroughly explore this, we formulate our analysis from two different perspectives, by collecting data both globally, from China, Japan, United Kingdom, and United States, and locally, from different groups of people inside the US. In particular, we analyze the trends between food prices and COVID-19 as well as between food prices and spending, aiming to find out their correlations and the lessons for preparing the next pandemic. © 2022 IEEE.

Estimating the link between trade uncertainty, pandemic uncertainty and food price stability in Togo: New evidence for an asymmetric analysis

Globally, the outbreak of COVID‐19 and the associated containment measures adopted by governments are causing disruptions that sow uncertainty in several sectors of the economy. In this study, we explore the asymmetric impact of pandemic uncertainty and global trade policy on food prices in Togo. The study uses a nonlinear autoregressive distributive lag (NARDL) framework and causality tests for the period 2000 M1–2021 M5. The results show that the different types of uncertainty affect food price stability in the short and long run, but the shock is more pronounced in the case of pandemic uncertainty, as they are sudden and disrupt food price stability. The main findings remain significant when we use various alternative methods and estimation techniques. However, our results suggest that the Togolese food market is facing pandemic uncertainty and trade policy, which should lead policymakers and stakeholders to take corrective measures to control losses.

Influence of COVID-19 Pandemic on Food Market Prices and Food Supply in Urban Markets in Nairobi, Kenya

The COVID-19 pandemic caused an unprecedented disruption of food systems worldwide, with most governments taking severe containment measures to curb the spread. This resulted in unpredicted negative impacts of the agri-food supply chains coupled with food price inflations. Ultimately, this affected the food security and urban livelihoods for most households, who are dependent on urban markets for food supply. This study examined the implications of the pandemic on food prices and commodities supplies to urban markets conducted through structured interviews. A review of the secondary data was also conducted to show the trends of commodity prices over the last 5 years. The high inflation of commodity prices with a decline in sales volumes was reported by most traders (97%) with decreases in supply quantities. Changes in the consumption behaviour in households was reported by consumers (75%), with 65% experiencing reduced food diversity at home. Households adopted varied coping mechanisms, including reduced food portions (52%), reduced food varieties (44%) and skipping meals (32%). Market prices increased by an average margin of 13.8% for grains and pulses with price decline observed for cabbages (−30.8%) and Irish potatoes (−19.4%). The findings may inform policymakers of additional future shock and pandemic control protocols, whose actions would assure food protection of urban livelihoods. © 2023 by the authors.

FROM THE DESK OF CHIEF EDITOR: A QUARTERLY PEER REVIEWED MULTI-DISCIPLINARY INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL

Energy market instability and price increases are specifically being caused by the conflict in Ukraine, with headwinds in most other economies more than offsetting growth in energy exporters. In many emerging market and developing countries, the invasion of Ukraine has also contributed to a sharp rise in the price of agricultural commodities, causing food insecurity and extreme poverty (EMDEs). In order to enhance development, strengthen macroeconomic frameworks, lessen financial vulnerabilities, help disadvantaged population groups, and lessen the long-term effects of recent global shocks, EMDE authorities and the international community must take decisive and comprehensive policy action.